by Hugh Fitzgerald
Israel has not done enough to defend its conduct of the war. See more on this here.
That negligence exploded into full view last week, in a “background” briefing to Israeli military correspondents, where a senior officer told reporters that Israel “accepts” the casualty figures issued by Hamas.
He did not say Israel has reservations about Hamas’s numbers.
He did not say the figures are being examined or disputed.
He didn’t even say that this number includes the estimated 25,000 terrorists killed in battle or targeted strikes.
He said Israel “accepts” them, clearing failing to realize how his words would be interpreted.
The impact was immediate. Israeli media reported the statement, international outlets translated and amplified it.Mehdi Hasan, one of Israel’s most virulent critics, seized on it as proof that Israeli officials had been lying all along.
Piers Morgan, who has attempted to host balanced discussions about the war, concluded that the debate was effectively over: Even the IDF, he said, now accepts Hamas’s numbers.
Whether knowingly or not, one IDF officer caused the country incredible damage. Nevertheless, none of this should come as a surprise.
The IDF officer who said Israel “accepts” the figure of 70,000 dead in Gaza should have been reassigned for such a colossal error of judgment. What the IDF should have put out in response to the Gaza Health Minstry’s claim is the following: “Hamas, through its puppet the Gaza Health Ministry, has just put out a figure of 70,000 dead in dead. We need to break this down. First, how many of those 70,00 were Hamas fighters? Our best estimate is that 25,000 Hamas members have been killed since the beginning of the war. We need to find out how many people in Gaza died of causes — diseases, accidents — unrelated to the war. Before the war began, about 800 civilians died of accidents and diseases each month in Gaza, so that during the 28 months since the war began, we conclude that 22,400 Gazans died from non-combat related causes. Finally, we need a reasonable estimate of how many died when rockets from Hamas and Islamic Jihad misfired and landed on civilians inside Gaza. We know, for example, that when an Islamic Jihad rocket misfired and struck just outside the Al-Ahli hospital, 400 people died. We believe that between 450-500 rockets launched from Gaza toward Israel misfired and fell inside Gaza in the early months of the war, leading us to estimate that 2,000 Gazans have died as a result of rockets launched by Hamas and Islamic Jihad. We calculate the number of civilians killed in Gaza as a result of Israeli fire as follows: 70,000 total dead minus 25,000 Hamas fighters equals 45,000. 45,000 minus 22,400 non-combat related deaths equals 22,600. 22,600 minus 2,000 deaths from misfired Hamas and PIJ rockets equals 20,600.”
And then the Israelis should note one more thing: the civilian-to-combatant ratio. The UN has calculated that in all the wars fought since World War II, that ratio has been 9 to 1, that is, 9 civilians killed for every combatant death. In Afghanistan, the Americans managed to bring that ratio down to 4 to 1, and in Iraq, to 3 to 1. But in the Gaza war, the IDF has managed to bring that ratio down to less than 1 to 1, calculated as follows: 20,600 civilians killed as a result of the fighting, and 25,000 combatants killed, gives a ratio of 20,600: 25,000. Such a civilian-to-combatant ratio is unheard of, never achieved by any other army. But the Israelis have failed to point out that achievement. They should start doing so now.
The preceding calculations should be printed out and distributed to the entire foreign press corps in Israel. And those figures should be brought up, repeatedly, whenever any representative of the IDF or the government of Israel is on a talk show, taking part in a debate, speaking at the U.N., meeting with EU officials, rebutting the preposterous calumny of “Israel is committing genocide,” or appearing at any other forum.
Israel has until now not sufficiently grasped the importance of the information war. It has allowed Hamas to run circles around it, putting out lie after lie, without the IDF ever providing a thorough, systematic, and rapid rebuttal to those calumnies. Above we have set out what an IDF spokesman, responding to the latest Hamas figures on casualties in Gaza, should be prepared to deliver. So go to it, IDF. Stand and deliver.